Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
The model leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 37%. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.28, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 6; Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gamba Osaka | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 38% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 37% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gamba Osaka 0| Gamba Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 21% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.