Predictions · League Cup · outside model coverage

Roasso Kumamoto

20
Won

Oita Trinita

The model leans Roasso Kumamoto at 40%. Expected goals: Roasso Kumamoto 1.08, Oita Trinita 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 66%. Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6; Oita Trinita won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Roasso Kumamoto43%2.33
XDraw35%2.87
2Oita Trinita22%4.49

Pick: Roasso Kumamoto. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.70
LineOverUnder
1.553%47%
2.526%74%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes33%No67%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.3%
  • 0017.0%
  • 1112.7%
  • 0111.8%
  • 209.8%
  • 216.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Roasso Kumamoto −0.5
Roasso Kumamoto lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%26%56%
-0.544%56%
044%32%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%17%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.