Roasso Kumamoto
Oita Trinita
The model leans Roasso Kumamoto at 40%. Expected goals: Roasso Kumamoto 1.08, Oita Trinita 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 66%. Roasso Kumamoto won 2 of their last 6; Oita Trinita won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roasso Kumamoto | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Oita Trinita | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.3%
- 0–017.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roasso Kumamoto −0.5| Roasso Kumamoto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.