Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Machida Zelvia
3–0
Won
Grulla Morioka
The model leans Machida Zelvia at 65%. Expected goals: Machida Zelvia 2.10, Grulla Morioka 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match75
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Machida Zelvia | 75% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Grulla Morioka | 7% | 15.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Machida Zelvia. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 0.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 2–016.6%
- 1–015.8%
- 3–011.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Machida Zelvia −1.5| Machida Zelvia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 17% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 6% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.