Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Vissel Kobe
2–1
Won
Veroskronos Tsuno
The model leans Vissel Kobe at 75%. Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 2.42, Veroskronos Tsuno 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 95%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match90
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vissel Kobe | 90% | 1.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 10.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Veroskronos Tsuno | 0% | 277.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vissel Kobe. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 90%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 0.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes4% | No96% |
Most likely scores
- 2–024.8%
- 1–020.5%
- 3–020.0%
- 4–012.1%
- 0–08.5%
- 5–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vissel Kobe −2| Vissel Kobe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| -1 | 68% | 22% | 10% |
| -0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| 0 | 90% | 10% | 0% |
| +0.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
| +1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.