Predictions · J. League 2 · outside model coverage

Yokohama FC

22
Lost

Sagan Tosu

The model leans Yokohama FC at 43%. Expected goals: Yokohama FC 1.44, Sagan Tosu 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. Yokohama FC won 4 of their last 6; Sagan Tosu won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Yokohama FC47%2.13
XDraw29%3.43
2Sagan Tosu24%4.19

Pick: Yokohama FC. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.44 – 0.96
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.1%
  • 1112.5%
  • 209.4%
  • 009.1%
  • 219.0%
  • 018.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Yokohama FC −0.5
Yokohama FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%24%52%
-0.548%52%
048%27%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%16%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.