Schalke 04
Atalanta
The model leans Atalanta at 42%. Expected goals: Schalke 04 0.97, Atalanta 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Schalke 04 won 2 of their last 5; Atalanta won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schalke 04 | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Atalanta | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atalanta. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–28.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atalanta −0.5| Schalke 04 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.