Feyenoord
Atalanta
The model leans Feyenoord at 37%. Expected goals: Feyenoord 1.52, Atalanta 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6; Atalanta won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Feyenoord | 38% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Atalanta | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Feyenoord. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.52 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feyenoord 0| Feyenoord line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 20% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.