Cambuur
Feyenoord
The model leans Feyenoord at 51%. Expected goals: Cambuur 1.41, Feyenoord 2.28. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%. Cambuur won 0 of their last 5; Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cambuur | 22% | 4.48 | 12.00 | 8% | +14 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.67 | 6.50 | 15% | +7 |
| 2Feyenoord | 56% | 1.78 | 1.22 | 78% | −21 |
Pick: Feyenoord. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 2.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–26.5%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feyenoord −1| Cambuur line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 13% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 20% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 21% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.