Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Bologna

31
Won

Cambuur

The model leans Bologna at 58%. Expected goals: Bologna 2.36, Cambuur 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%. Bologna won 2 of their last 6; Cambuur won 0 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bologna66%1.52
XDraw20%5.04
2Cambuur14%6.93

Pick: Bologna. Calibrated probability 58% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.36 – 1.05
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.566%34%
3.544%56%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 219.7%
  • 209.3%
  • 118.2%
  • 107.9%
  • 317.6%
  • 307.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bologna −1
Bologna lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.544%56%
-144%22%33%
-0.567%33%
067%18%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%10%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.