Cambuur
FC Twente
The model leans FC Twente at 51%. Expected goals: Cambuur 1.22, FC Twente 2.16. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%. Cambuur won 0 of their last 5; FC Twente won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cambuur | 20% | 5.02 | 7.50 | 13% | +7 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.52 | 6.25 | 15% | +7 |
| 2FC Twente | 58% | 1.72 | 1.30 | 72% | −14 |
Pick: FC Twente. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 2.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Twente −1| Cambuur line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 13% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 20% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 22% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.