PAOK Thessaloniki
FC Twente
The model leans PAOK Thessaloniki at 45%. Expected goals: PAOK Thessaloniki 1.68, FC Twente 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. PAOK Thessaloniki won 2 of their last 6; FC Twente won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PAOK Thessaloniki | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Twente | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: PAOK Thessaloniki. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–16.8%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PAOK Thessaloniki −0.5| PAOK Thessaloniki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.