Predictions · Super League · outside model coverage

PAOK Thessaloniki

40
Won

Levadiakos

The model leans PAOK Thessaloniki at 55%. Expected goals: PAOK Thessaloniki 2.26, Levadiakos 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. PAOK Thessaloniki won 2 of their last 6; Levadiakos won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1PAOK Thessaloniki63%1.58
XDraw21%4.81
2Levadiakos16%6.33

Pick: PAOK Thessaloniki. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.26 – 1.07
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 219.8%
  • 209.2%
  • 118.6%
  • 108.1%
  • 317.4%
  • 306.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: PAOK Thessaloniki −1
PAOK Thessaloniki lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.542%58%
-142%23%36%
-0.564%36%
064%19%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%11%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.