PAOK Thessaloniki
Anderlecht
The model leans PAOK Thessaloniki at 55%. Expected goals: PAOK Thessaloniki 2.27, Anderlecht 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. PAOK Thessaloniki won 2 of their last 6; Anderlecht won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PAOK Thessaloniki | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Anderlecht | 16% | 6.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: PAOK Thessaloniki. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.27 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.4%
- 3–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PAOK Thessaloniki −1| PAOK Thessaloniki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.