Anderlecht
PAOK Thessaloniki
The model leans PAOK Thessaloniki at 47%. Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.34, PAOK Thessaloniki 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. Anderlecht won 4 of their last 6; PAOK Thessaloniki won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Anderlecht | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| 2PAOK Thessaloniki | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: PAOK Thessaloniki. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PAOK Thessaloniki −0.5| Anderlecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 23% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.