Union St.Gilloise
Anderlecht
The model leans Union St.Gilloise at 55%. Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise 1.99, Anderlecht 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Union St.Gilloise won 3 of their last 6; Anderlecht won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union St.Gilloise | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Anderlecht | 14% | 7.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union St.Gilloise. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.99 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.8%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.8%
- 3–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union St.Gilloise −1| Union St.Gilloise line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 25% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.