Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Union St.Gilloise

00
Lost

Zulte Waregem

The model leans Union St.Gilloise at 61%. Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise 2.02, Zulte Waregem 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 58%. Union St.Gilloise won 3 of their last 6; Zulte Waregem won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Union St.Gilloise69%1.45
XDraw21%4.70
2Zulte Waregem10%10.16

Pick: Union St.Gilloise. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.02 – 0.64
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes41%No59%

Most likely scores

  • 2014.3%
  • 1014.2%
  • 309.6%
  • 219.1%
  • 119.1%
  • 007.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 39% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Union St.Gilloise −1.5
Union St.Gilloise lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.544%56%
-144%25%30%
-0.570%30%
070%19%11%
+0.589%11%
+189%8%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.