Westerlo
Union St.Gilloise
The model leans Union St.Gilloise at 50%. Expected goals: Westerlo 0.79, Union St.Gilloise 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Westerlo won 0 of their last 4; Union St.Gilloise won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Westerlo | 18% | 5.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Union St.Gilloise | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union St.Gilloise. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–211.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union St.Gilloise −0.5| Westerlo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.