Genk
Westerlo
The model leans Genk at 50%. Expected goals: Genk 1.80, Westerlo 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Genk won 3 of their last 6; Westerlo won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genk | 53% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Westerlo | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Genk. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.1%
- 3–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Genk −0.5| Genk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 24% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.