Lommel
Westerlo
The model leans Lommel at 36%. Expected goals: Lommel 1.64, Westerlo 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Lommel won 2 of their last 5; Westerlo won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lommel | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Westerlo | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lommel. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lommel 0| Lommel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 19% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.