St.Truiden
Lommel
The model leans St.Truiden at 60%. Expected goals: St.Truiden 2.48, Lommel 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. St.Truiden won 1 of their last 4; Lommel won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St.Truiden | 68% | 1.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Lommel | 13% | 7.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: St.Truiden. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.48 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St.Truiden −1.5| St.Truiden line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.