Lommel
Sporting Charleroi
The model leans Sporting Charleroi at 40%. Expected goals: Lommel 1.29, Sporting Charleroi 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Lommel won 2 of their last 5; Sporting Charleroi won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lommel | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting Charleroi | 43% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting Charleroi. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting Charleroi −0.5| Lommel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.