Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Sporting Charleroi

31
Won

OH Leuven

The model leans Sporting Charleroi at 50%. Expected goals: Sporting Charleroi 1.50, OH Leuven 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%. Sporting Charleroi won 4 of their last 6; OH Leuven won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sporting Charleroi52%1.94
XDraw29%3.50
2OH Leuven20%5.05

Pick: Sporting Charleroi. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.50 – 0.84
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.542%58%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes44%No56%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.4%
  • 1112.1%
  • 2010.8%
  • 009.6%
  • 219.1%
  • 018.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sporting Charleroi −0.5
Sporting Charleroi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%26%47%
-0.553%47%
053%26%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%14%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.