Gent
OH Leuven
The model leans Gent at 50%. Expected goals: Gent 1.55, OH Leuven 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Gent won 4 of their last 6; OH Leuven won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gent | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| 2OH Leuven | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gent. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gent −0.5| Gent line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.