Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

Gent

00
Lost

Hibernian

The model leans Hibernian at 37%. Expected goals: Gent 1.16, Hibernian 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Gent won 4 of their last 6; Hibernian won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Gent32%3.12
XDraw30%3.35
2Hibernian38%2.62

Pick: Hibernian. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.29
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.9%
  • 0111.1%
  • 1010.0%
  • 008.6%
  • 128.3%
  • 217.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Gent 0
Gent lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%20%67%
-0.533%67%
033%27%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%22%18%
+1.582%18%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.