Gent
Hibernian
The model leans Hibernian at 37%. Expected goals: Gent 1.16, Hibernian 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Gent won 4 of their last 6; Hibernian won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gent | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Hibernian | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hibernian. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gent 0| Gent line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 27% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 22% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.