Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
The model leans Heart of Midlothian at 40%. Expected goals: Hibernian 1.03, Heart of Midlothian 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Hibernian won 3 of their last 6; Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hibernian | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Heart of Midlothian | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Heart of Midlothian. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–28.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Heart of Midlothian −0.5| Hibernian line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.