Heart of Midlothian
Inverness Caledonian Thistle
The model leans Heart of Midlothian at 51%. Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.68, Inverness Caledonian Thistle 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 6; Inverness Caledonian Thistle won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heart of Midlothian | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 17% | 6.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Heart of Midlothian. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.4%
- 0–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Heart of Midlothian −1| Heart of Midlothian line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.