Arbroath
Inverness Caledonian Thistle
The model leans Arbroath at 36%. Expected goals: Arbroath 1.25, Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Arbroath won 3 of their last 6; Inverness Caledonian Thistle won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arbroath | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arbroath. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arbroath 0| Arbroath line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.