Arbroath
Montrose
The model leans Arbroath at 67%. Expected goals: Arbroath 2.80, Montrose 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 57%. Arbroath won 3 of their last 6; Montrose won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arbroath | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Montrose | 9% | 11.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arbroath. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.80 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.6%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.8%
- 1–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arbroath −2| Arbroath line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.