Alloa Athletic
Montrose
The model leans Alloa Athletic at 52%. Expected goals: Alloa Athletic 2.37, Montrose 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%. Alloa Athletic won 4 of their last 6; Montrose won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alloa Athletic | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Montrose | 21% | 4.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Alloa Athletic. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.37 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–05.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Alloa Athletic −1| Alloa Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 21% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.