Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
The model leans Hamilton Academical at 37%. Expected goals: Hamilton Academical 1.51, Alloa Athletic 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Hamilton Academical won 3 of their last 6; Alloa Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hamilton Academical | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Alloa Athletic | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hamilton Academical. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hamilton Academical 0| Hamilton Academical line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 21% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.