Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Hamilton Academical

13
Lost

Celtic B

The model leans Hamilton Academical at 51%. Expected goals: Hamilton Academical 2.62, Celtic B 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%. Hamilton Academical won 3 of their last 6; Celtic B won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hamilton Academical58%1.73
XDraw19%5.17
2Celtic B23%4.35

Pick: Hamilton Academical. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.62 – 1.66
LineOverUnder
1.593%7%
2.580%20%
3.562%38%
Both teams to scoreYes75%No25%

Most likely scores

  • 217.9%
  • 316.9%
  • 226.6%
  • 116.0%
  • 325.7%
  • 125.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hamilton Academical −1
Hamilton Academical lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.538%62%
-138%20%42%
-0.558%42%
058%18%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%13%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.