Hamilton Academical
Celtic B
The model leans Hamilton Academical at 51%. Expected goals: Hamilton Academical 2.62, Celtic B 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%. Hamilton Academical won 3 of their last 6; Celtic B won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hamilton Academical | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Celtic B | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hamilton Academical. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.62 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes75% | No25% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.9%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hamilton Academical −1| Hamilton Academical line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 20% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 18% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 13% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.