Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Hamilton Academical

10
Won

Cove Rangers

The model leans Hamilton Academical at 37%. Expected goals: Hamilton Academical 1.28, Cove Rangers 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Hamilton Academical won 3 of their last 6; Cove Rangers won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hamilton Academical39%2.55
XDraw30%3.31
2Cove Rangers31%3.26

Pick: Hamilton Academical. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.11
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 1011.7%
  • 0110.1%
  • 009.1%
  • 218.4%
  • 207.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hamilton Academical 0
Hamilton Academical lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%22%60%
-0.540%60%
040%28%32%
+0.568%32%
+168%19%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.