Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Cove Rangers

30
Won

Peterhead

The model leans Cove Rangers at 50%. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.73, Peterhead 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Cove Rangers won 2 of their last 6; Peterhead won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cove Rangers54%1.85
XDraw26%3.85
2Peterhead20%5.00

Pick: Cove Rangers. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.73 – 0.97
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1011.6%
  • 1111.3%
  • 2010.0%
  • 219.8%
  • 006.7%
  • 016.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cove Rangers −0.5
Cove Rangers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%24%45%
-0.555%45%
055%24%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%14%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.