Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Peterhead
2–1
Won
Dundee FC B
The model leans Peterhead at 73%. Expected goals: Peterhead 3.60, Dundee FC B 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match88
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Peterhead | 88% | 1.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 9% | 11.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Dundee FC B | 4% | 27.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Peterhead. Calibrated probability 73% (raw model output 88%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.60 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 3–010.2%
- 4–09.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–17.6%
- 4–16.8%
- 5–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Peterhead −2| Peterhead line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| -1 | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| -0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| 0 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| +1 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.