Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Formartine United
4–1
Won
Dundee FC B
The model leans Formartine United at 73%. Expected goals: Formartine United 2.76, Dundee FC B 0.35. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 72%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match87
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Formartine United | 87% | 1.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 9.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Dundee FC B | 2% | 40.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Formartine United. Calibrated probability 73% (raw model output 87%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.76 – 0.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 2–017.0%
- 3–015.6%
- 1–012.3%
- 4–010.8%
- 2–16.0%
- 5–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Formartine United −2| Formartine United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| -1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| -0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| 0 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +0.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
| +1 | 97% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.