Forfar Athletic
Formartine United
The model leans Formartine United at 37%. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 0.70, Formartine United 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Forfar Athletic won 2 of their last 6; Formartine United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forfar Athletic | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Formartine United | 39% | 2.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Formartine United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.70 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.7%
- 0–118.2%
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 62% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Forfar Athletic 0| Forfar Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 18% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 34% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 25% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.