Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Forfar Athletic

10
Lost

Formartine United

The model leans Formartine United at 37%. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 0.70, Formartine United 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Forfar Athletic won 2 of their last 6; Formartine United won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forfar Athletic24%4.14
XDraw36%2.75
2Formartine United39%2.54

Pick: Formartine United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.70 – 0.97
LineOverUnder
1.550%50%
2.524%76%
3.59%91%
Both teams to scoreYes31%No69%

Most likely scores

  • 0018.7%
  • 0118.2%
  • 1013.1%
  • 1112.8%
  • 028.9%
  • 126.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 62% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forfar Athletic 0
Forfar Athletic lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.57%93%
-17%18%75%
-0.525%75%
025%34%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%25%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.