Forres Mechanics
Formartine United
The model leans Formartine United at 50%. Expected goals: Forres Mechanics 0.68, Formartine United 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. Forres Mechanics won 1 of their last 6; Formartine United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forres Mechanics | 17% | 5.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Formartine United | 53% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Formartine United. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.68 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.3%
- 0–212.3%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Formartine United −0.5| Forres Mechanics line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.