Forres Mechanics
Keith
The model leans Keith at 51%. Expected goals: Forres Mechanics 1.00, Keith 1.89. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. Forres Mechanics won 1 of their last 6; Keith won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forres Mechanics | 19% | 5.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Keith | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Keith. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–36.2%
- 0–36.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Keith −1| Forres Mechanics line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| +1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.