Predictions · Highland / Lowland · outside model coverage

Deveronvale

11
Lost

Forres Mechanics

The model leans Forres Mechanics at 51%. Expected goals: Deveronvale 1.41, Forres Mechanics 2.26. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%. Deveronvale won 1 of their last 5; Forres Mechanics won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Deveronvale22%4.45
XDraw22%4.64
2Forres Mechanics56%1.79

Pick: Forres Mechanics. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.41 – 2.26
LineOverUnder
1.588%12%
2.571%29%
3.550%50%
Both teams to scoreYes68%No32%

Most likely scores

  • 129.2%
  • 118.1%
  • 136.9%
  • 026.5%
  • 226.5%
  • 015.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forres Mechanics −1
Deveronvale lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%13%77%
-0.523%77%
023%20%57%
+0.543%57%
+143%21%35%
+1.565%35%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.