Lossiemouth
Forres Mechanics
The model leans Forres Mechanics at 63%. Expected goals: Lossiemouth 0.76, Forres Mechanics 2.33. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 51%. Lossiemouth won 2 of their last 5; Forres Mechanics won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lossiemouth | 10% | 10.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Forres Mechanics | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Forres Mechanics. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 2.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–39.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–37.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Forres Mechanics −1.5| Lossiemouth line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 23% | 49% |
| +1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.