Keith
Lossiemouth
The model leans Keith at 77%. Expected goals: Keith 3.76, Lossiemouth 0.36. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 70%. Keith won 1 of their last 6; Lossiemouth won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Keith | 94% | 1.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 5% | 19.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Lossiemouth | 1% | 97.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Keith. Calibrated probability 77% (raw model output 94%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.76 – 0.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 3–014.6%
- 4–013.8%
- 2–011.7%
- 5–010.3%
- 6–06.5%
- 1–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Keith −2| Keith line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| -1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| -0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| 0 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +0.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
| +1 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.