Formartine United
Keith
The model leans Formartine United at 37%. Expected goals: Formartine United 0.99, Keith 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 66%. Formartine United won 3 of their last 6; Keith won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Formartine United | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Keith | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Formartine United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–017.6%
- 1–017.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.7%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Formartine United 0| Formartine United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 25% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 33% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 19% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.