Lossiemouth
Fraserburgh
The model leans Fraserburgh at 70%. Expected goals: Lossiemouth 0.59, Fraserburgh 2.71. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%. Lossiemouth won 2 of their last 5; Fraserburgh won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lossiemouth | 5% | 19.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Fraserburgh | 81% | 1.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fraserburgh. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.59 – 2.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–213.6%
- 0–312.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–48.3%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fraserburgh −2| Lossiemouth line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 4% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| +0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| +1 | 18% | 20% | 61% |
| +1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.