Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Fraserburgh
1–1
Lost
Aberdeen B
The model leans Fraserburgh at 55%. Expected goals: Fraserburgh 3.02, Aberdeen B 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 78%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match64
17
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fraserburgh | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Aberdeen B | 19% | 5.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fraserburgh. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.02 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 69% | 31% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.0%
- 2–16.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 4–15.3%
- 1–14.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fraserburgh −1| Fraserburgh line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 19% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 16% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 11% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.