Montrose
Fraserburgh
The model leans Montrose at 50%. Expected goals: Montrose 2.10, Fraserburgh 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%. Montrose won 4 of their last 6; Fraserburgh won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montrose | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Fraserburgh | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montrose. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.4%
- 2–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montrose −0.5| Montrose line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.