Montrose
Queen of the South
The model leans Queen of the South at 43%. Expected goals: Montrose 1.74, Queen of the South 2.14. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. Montrose won 4 of their last 6; Queen of the South won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montrose | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Queen of the South | 47% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Queen of the South. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 2.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.9%
- 2–35.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Queen of the South −0.5| Montrose line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 16% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 20% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.