Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

East Kilbride

51
Lost

Queen of the South

The model leans Queen of the South at 38%. Expected goals: East Kilbride 1.88, Queen of the South 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. East Kilbride won 3 of their last 6; Queen of the South won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1East Kilbride37%2.71
XDraw23%4.41
2Queen of the South40%2.48

Pick: Queen of the South. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.88 – 1.97
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.554%46%
Both teams to scoreYes73%No27%

Most likely scores

  • 117.9%
  • 127.8%
  • 217.4%
  • 227.3%
  • 135.1%
  • 234.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: East Kilbride 0
East Kilbride lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%18%62%
-0.538%62%
038%21%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%19%23%
+1.577%23%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.