Cowdenbeath
East Kilbride
The model leans East Kilbride at 40%. Expected goals: Cowdenbeath 1.71, East Kilbride 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. Cowdenbeath won 1 of their last 6; East Kilbride won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cowdenbeath | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
| 2East Kilbride | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: East Kilbride. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.5%
- 0–15.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cowdenbeath 0| Cowdenbeath line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 17% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 21% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.