Edinburgh City
Cowdenbeath
The model leans Cowdenbeath at 50%. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.29, Cowdenbeath 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. Edinburgh City won 4 of their last 6; Cowdenbeath won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Edinburgh City | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Cowdenbeath | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cowdenbeath. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cowdenbeath −0.5| Edinburgh City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 14% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 22% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 22% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.