Edinburgh City
Annan Athletic
The model leans Annan Athletic at 42%. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.58, Annan Athletic 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. Edinburgh City won 4 of their last 6; Annan Athletic won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Edinburgh City | 30% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Annan Athletic | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Annan Athletic. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.8%
- 0–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Annan Athletic −0.5| Edinburgh City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.