Predictions · League Two · outside model coverage

Edinburgh City

10
Lost

Annan Athletic

The model leans Annan Athletic at 42%. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.58, Annan Athletic 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. Edinburgh City won 4 of their last 6; Annan Athletic won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Edinburgh City30%3.28
XDraw24%4.25
2Annan Athletic46%2.17

Pick: Annan Athletic. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.97
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.569%31%
3.547%53%
Both teams to scoreYes68%No32%

Most likely scores

  • 119.0%
  • 128.8%
  • 217.1%
  • 227.0%
  • 135.8%
  • 015.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Annan Athletic −0.5
Edinburgh City lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%16%69%
-0.531%69%
031%22%47%
+0.553%47%
+153%20%27%
+1.573%27%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.